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Off the Deep End in Brazil

_{Gerald Herbert}

With crude still hemorrhaging into the Gulf of

Mexico, deep-water drilling might seem taboo just

now. In fact, extreme oil will likely be the new normal.

Despite the gulf tragedy, the quest for oil and gas in

5 the most difficult places on the planet is just getting

underway. Prospecting proceeds apace in the ultra-

deepwater reserves off the coasts of Ghana and

Nigeria, the sulfur-laden depths of the Black Sea, and

the tar sands of Venezuela’s Orinoco Basin. Brazil’s

10 Petrobras, which already controls a quarter of global

deepwater operations, is just starting to plumb its 9 to

15 billion barrels of proven reserves buried some four

miles below the Atlantic.

The reason is simple: after a century and a

15 half of breakneck oil prospecting, the easy stuff is

history. Blistering growth in emerging nations has

turned the power grid upside down. India and China

will consume 28 percent of global energy by 2030,

triple the juice they required in 1990. China is set to

20 overtake the U.S. in energy consumption by 2014.

And now that the Great Recession is easing, the

earth’s hoard of conventional oil is waning even

faster. The International Energy Agency reckons the

world will need to find 65 million additional barrels a

25 day by 2030. If the U.S. offshore-drilling moratorium

drags on, look for idled rigs heading to other shores.

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