1 In recent years, a gap between predicted results and

actual results has been a frequent problem when project

evaluations have been performed. But because it is difficult

4 to reliably predict each factor that impacts project evaluation

results into the future, these results unavoidably include

uncertain factors. Project evaluation methods are proposed

7 but the problem of uncertainty is not adequately assessed.

Therefore, project evaluation methods that account for

uncertainty of future project factors must be developed.

10 Introduction of sensitivity analysis methods

Sensitivity analysis methods set a range of values of

factors that have a substantial impact on the results of cost

13 benefit analysis and assess the degree that changes of these

factors affect the results of cost benefit analysis. In this way,

the results of cost benefit analysis are presented including

16 this range, guaranteeing flexibility of evaluations and

improving public accountability. Because performing

sensitivity analysis permits the clarification of the degree of

19 impact on the results of cost benefit analysis of changes of

important influential factors, project managers can accurately

understand uncertainties surrounding a project in advance to

22 manage the implementation of the project appropriately and

take measures to deal with decreased efficiency by a

continuous confirmation process.

25 Set up of the project evaluation data base

In order to perform sensitivity analysis of a project

evaluation, it is necessary to carry out an analysis to

28 determine the degree of uncertainty of projects implemented

in the past. On the other hand, although the introduction of

project re-evaluations has increased the opportunities to

31 revise evaluation results, not enough data have been

accumulated to permit comparative analysis of uncertain

factors accompanying project implementation with the

34 project evaluation results.

Internet: <http://www.nilim.go.jp/> (adapted).

Based on the text, judge the following items.